MY MATES MEDIA

The byes. The great equaliser. The one weekend a year where half the league looks like a real AFL Fantasy operation and the other half looks like a team assembled by a golden retriever with access to a laptop. Round 2 of The Shiva Bowl promises all the drama of a Roman colosseum — if the colosseum had terrible Wi-Fi and the gladiators kept getting rested by their AFL clubs.

Several coaches have reportedly activated what insiders are calling 'Gladiator Mode' — a strategy that sounds significantly cooler than what it actually is, which is just... picking the players who are available. It's less Russell Crowe in a loincloth and more your dad at a buffet taking whatever's left under the heat lamp. But hey, when four AFL teams are on the bye, you play what you've got and you pretend it was the plan all along.

## Catslee Spinning (976) vs Tom is Team (353) — 100% vs 0%

Let's start with the headliner. The algorithm has given Tom is Team a zero percent chance of winning. Not low. Not unlikely. Zero. The computer has looked at Tom's roster, looked at the byes, and simply said "no." Catslee Spinning is projected at 976 — a perfectly respectable score — while Tom is Team is limping in at 353, a number you'd be disappointed to see on a Wordle streak, let alone an AFL Fantasy scoreboard. Tom has played 0 of 3 players so far. Spongi has played 0 of 10. That's not a matchup, that's a wellness check. Tom's team is so decimated by byes that if you squint at his roster it looks like a missing persons board. J. Sinclair (99) is basically a one-man army propping up the entire operation while the rest of the squad is presumably at home on couches across Victoria. This is less Gladiator Mode and more "surrender at the gates" mode.

But here's the twist that has Tom refreshing the AFL Fantasy app every four seconds like a man tracking a lost AusPost parcel: Spongi hasn't updated his team yet. That 976 projection? That's with a full squad of 10. If Spongi honours the spirit of Gladiator Mode — and surely he will, right? RIGHT? — he strips back to his best available players and rides into battle with a skeleton crew like everyone else. Tom is reportedly pacing his living room, alternating between nervous laughter and composing strongly-worded group chat messages about "competitive integrity" while simultaneously praying that Spongi forgets to log in entirely. The 100-0 win probability could shift. It won't shift to anything respectable, mind you, but Tom would take 95-5 at this point. He'd take 99-1. He'd take anything that isn't a literal zero. Spongi, the entire league is watching. Will you gladiate? Or will you simply field ten players against a man with three and call it sport?

## Cotton On Contributions (1206) vs Maddiekarp (1228) — 41% vs 59%

Now THIS is a genuine contest. Jackson's Cotton On Contributions sit 11th with a projected 1206 against Maddie's 7th-placed Maddiekarp at 1228. The win probability favours Maddie at 59%, but this is close enough that a couple of big scores on either side could swing it. Jackson has gone absolutely feral in free agency — acquiring players like he's trying to fill a bus — and now we get to see if quantity equals quality. Cotton On have loaded up across the midfield with J. Steele (97), J. Soligo (75), and the freshly acquired D. Prestia, while Maddiekarp counters with T. Liberatore (90), O. Wines (92), and T. Miller (83). The forward battle is particularly spicy — Jackson's H. Sheezel (124) is an absolute monster projection, but Maddie fires back with B. Cook, K. Pickett, and J. van Rooyen. If Sheezel delivers on that 124, Jackson could steal this. If he doesn't, Cotton On Contributions will be exactly what the name suggests: a contribution to everyone else's win column.

## CharlieGuerno (1047) vs Anna's Angels15 (1176) — 8% vs 92%

Charlie. Mate. Eight percent. Anna's Angels15 are projected to win this by 129 points, which is less a margin and more a restraining order. Anna has M. Bontempelli projected at 101, A. Brayshaw at 98, and a defence led by R. Laird (90) that could outscore Charlie's entire midfield. CharlieGuerno's best asset is T. De Koning at 79 in the ruck, but the defence is a wasteland — J. Impey (78) and W. Milera (82) are doing their best, but J. Silvagni (57) looks like he's been named purely because he's technically alive and not on a bye. Charlie did just execute a full roster refresh in free agency, bringing in S. Berry and T. Blamires. Whether that's enough to close a 129-point projected gap is a question best answered by a motivational poster, not a mathematician. Anna's squad, meanwhile, looks like she actually drafted well. Disgusting behaviour.

## Stabby Chatfields (298) vs claire (243) — 90% vs 10%

Welcome to the Gladiator Mode Grand Final. This is what happens when the bye round hits two coaches so hard that the projected scores look like a particularly slow day of county cricket. Marc's Stabby Chatfields are projected at 298. Claire is projected at 243. Between the two of them, they might crack 550. For context, that's less than what Maddiekarp is projected to score alone. Marc has activated full gladiator — E. Richards (89) in the midfield and T. Xerri (120) in the ruck are basically his entire team. The rest is tumbleweeds and bye notifications. Claire is in even worse shape — her roster appears to have exactly D. Stephens (80) and vibes. The remaining positions are a sea of grey silhouettes and zeroes. It's like opening a pack of footy cards and getting nothing but the cardboard insert. Marc gets the 90% win probability purely by virtue of having more than two players available. This is not football. This is a hostage negotiation with the fixture.

## Wominjeka Warriros (1185) vs MitchWhite (1062) — 90% vs 10%

Al's Wominjeka Warriros are projected 5th at 1185 against Mitch's 3rd-ranked 1062, and the algorithm gives Al a commanding 90% win probability. This is a matchup between two genuine teams — no gladiator nonsense here, just proper rosters doing proper things. Al has loaded up with C. Serong (107), C. Oliver (94), and C. Rozee (102) across the midfield, while J. Witts (104) anchors the ruck. That's four players projected over 94. Mitch counters with Z. Merrett (102), I. Cumming (73), and... well, Mitch has A. Treloar projected at 0, which is the kind of thing that really brings down an average. The defence battle is fascinating — Al's L. Whitfield (103) against Mitch's K. Amon (88) — but the gap in the mids is where this one gets decided. Al came off a win in Round 1 and looks like repeating. Mitch came off a win too, but the bye gods have been significantly less kind.

## The Diamond Zwerves (1188) vs Lachie Neale's Divorce Lawyer (1051) — 93% vs 7%

Zwerve is absolutely flying. The Diamond Zwerves sit 4th with a projected 1188 and a ridiculous 93% win probability against KP's 1st-ranked Lachie Neale's Divorce Lawyer at 1051. Zwerve went nuclear in free agency — picking up J. Battle and J. Rachele in a double swoop that screamed "I am not here to participate, I am here to dominate" — and the projections suggest the gamble is paying off. N. Anderson (104) leads a stacked midfield, J. Horne-Francis (77) and Z. Butters (100) provide the flair, while B. Grundy (98) mans the ruck. KP's squad isn't terrible — S. Coniglio (70), J. Dunkley (77 projected but on BYE, so 0), and the freshly acquired D. Prestia... wait, no, that's Jackson. KP's forwards are led by S. Darcy (65) and S. Brock, but the bench is riddled with byes. L. Neale himself is on a bye, which is poetic — the man whose divorce lawyer the team is named after can't even play. KP needs a miracle. Zwerve needs a victory cigar.

## The Gladiator Mode Power Rankings

Most Gladiator: Marc (Stabby Chatfields) — two players and a dream. This man is entering the arena with a pool noodle and a prayer. Most Gladiator (Honourable Mention): Claire — somehow projecting less than Marc with what appears to be an even smaller army. Her bench is bigger than her playing squad. Least Gladiator: Maddie (Maddiekarp) — 14 players available, a full squad, projecting 1228. This isn't gladiator mode, this is regular mode with better planning. Most Delusional: Tom — projecting 353. Has reportedly told the group chat he "likes his chances." Tom, your chances are literally zero percent. The algorithm doesn't even think you have a chance by accident. Best Free Agency Impact: Zwerve — turned Round 1's momentum into a full-blown arms race, now projected 4th and threatening the entire top of the table. Worst Free Agency Impact: TBD — several coaches made moves at 9:14 pm on Monday night that will be judged harshly or celebrated wildly depending on the results. The tribunal sits on Sunday night.

Projected scores and win probabilities sourced from AFL Fantasy. Actual results may vary. My Mates Media accepts no responsibility for emotional damage sustained during bye rounds, particularly by Tom.